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"Paris and Berlin no
longer are moving in lockstep on key issues -- if in
fact they ever were."
A Summit for History?
By Marla Dial
http://www.stratfor.com/
Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for a two-day
summit early next week in Hannover, where Russian
delegations will play a prominent role in an annual
international trade fair. Apart from any business
deals that might be forged during the April 10-11
summit, the tete-a-tete is noteworthy for three very
important reasons: the present, future and past.
Let's begin with the present. Schroeder is presiding
over an economy that has dipped to its poorest
showing since World War II, with unemployment at a
70-year high of 12 percent and its third recession
in two years under way. Germany is Russia's single
most important trade partner -- the two already are
forging closer ties in military, space and energy
affairs. Clearly, the Hannover trade fair is an
important event for workers and companies in both
countries.
But stepping back a notch, it also likely has
important implications for both Schroeder and Putin
on personal and geopolitical levels as well. For
Schroeder, the poor state of the economy is going to
damage his Social Democrats in elections slated for
May, and Russia seems an obvious choice to turn to
if he can do anything to notch improvements between
now and then. Russia's energy industry and large
markets are particularly enticing for Berlin.
For his part, Putin has been suffering an
image-battering at home, given the recent spate of
political upheavals and perceived Western
encroachment in Russia's traditional sphere of
influence. A Putin desperate for a low-risk way of
proving that Russia still has geopolitical leverage
somewhere in the world could do worse than to look
to Europe -- and particularly Germany, his own
former stomping ground as a KGB agent.
Berlin has taken the lead in efforts to strengthen
EU-Russian relations -- and so far it has been all
but alone. The rest of the European Union, whose
bounds have been expanded by a slew of Central
European states with bad Cold War memories, remains
quite leery of Russia. Not for the first time, we
are seeing a case of division between one of the
core EU states and the rest of the Union -- a trend
outlined in Stratfor's 2004 annual forecast, in
which we stated that 2005 will be seen
retrospectively as the beginning of the end of the
European Union.
Over the next several years, what might now seem to
be normal tensions will continue to rip and tear at
the fabric of the Union -- and for its part, France
will only add to the strain. Like Germany, France is
in terrible economic condition and casting about for
political and trade partners who can lend a hand --
but looking further afield, possibly to China. Paris
and Berlin are no longer moving in lockstep on key
issues -- if in fact they ever were (France has
always used Germany as a stepping stool to French
domination of the EU) -- and the differences will
only become increasingly obvious over time.
For observers of the past, this underlying state of
affairs cannot but sound a bit familiar. Now, we
certainly are not making a forecast at this point,
but it is noteworthy that the last time the German
economy was in such dire straits, Germany
militarized -- and signed a treaty with Russia known
as the Molotov-Rippentrop accord. With its eastern
flank secured, Germany then was free -- for a time
-- to set about launching World War II.
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